Johns Hopkins Medicine Team Creates Model to Help Show Path Toward Ending HIV Nationwide

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A new Johns Hopkins Medicine mathematical model to predict how the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) spreads in urban areas will play a major role in a federal initiative aiming to reduce the incidence of HIV infections in the United States by 90% between 2020 and 2030.  As part of the Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. (EHE) program, the model will be used to forecast HIV incidence in 32 U.S. cities when implementing specific interventions to reduce transmission of the virus.

In a study published Sept. 21, 2021, in the Annals of Internal Medicine, Anthony Todd Fojo, M.D., M.H.S., and colleagues describe their model, an algorithm that splits each city’s population into categories of race, age, sex and HIV risk factors, and estimates the number of HIV infections associated with each one.